Author: Bernice McNutt, REALTOR®

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After a long stretch of ups and downs, Canada’s real estate market is beginning to show signs of a steady recovery. We’re seeing sales improve, inventory stabilize, and even early price gains—although it’s clear this transition is more gradual than dramatic. For 2026, the forecast suggests a slight dip in sales (around 4% to 453,000 homes) and a small easing in average prices (about 2% to $794,000), with a firmer rebound expected in 2027 when sales could rise by 7% and prices nudge up to roughly $801,000. Recovery won’t happen at the same pace everywhere: Ontario and BC may take longer to bounce back, and condo markets in Toronto and Vancouver will likely stay under pressure due to higher supply. To me, this isn’t a return to the frenzied market of years past, but a move toward healthier, more sustainable conditions. For buyers and sellers alike, this could mean more balanced opportunities ahead. As always, my approach is to keep things straightforward and honest—helping you understand what these shifts might mean for your next move, without the overwhelm.

Recently, I’ve seen some Ontario condo buyers face an unexpected challenge: their new units are closing at up to 30% above current market value. The root of the problem? Many pre-construction condos were purchased at contract prices that no longer match the realities of today’s market. When it’s finally time to close, banks will only lend based on the current appraised value—leaving buyers short on closing funds if the unit’s worth has dropped since the deal was signed.

These long stretches between signing and closing—thanks to permits, pre-sales, and even labor shortages—can completely upend plans when markets shift. I remember when, not so long ago, developers sometimes canceled deals midstream as costs rose, sparking provincial scrutiny and calls for more oversight. For buyers, the contracts are often tough to navigate, with few chances to back out after the 10-day cooling-off period, unless occupancy dates aren’t met.

After 27 years in real estate, I’ve learned that buying a home—especially a pre-construction condo—shouldn’t feel like a leap into the unknown. My approach is always about making things straightforward, honest, and as stress-free as possible, so you know exactly what you’re stepping into.

There’s been a lot of talk lately about the direction of the GTA real estate market, and the numbers from mid-Q3 2026 tell a clear story. The average home sold for $993,000, down about 3% from last year—which certainly gives buyers a bit more breathing room. Condo apartments averaged $618,000, also below last year’s mark, but what really stands out is how much the smallest units, especially micro condos under 500 sq-ft, have struggled.

These micro condos have become the hardest to sell, with most buyers choosing larger options when they can. In early Q3, about 98% of GTA neighbourhoods with at least five condo sales saw units sell for less than list price, so buyers had more room to negotiate than we’ve seen in years. Even single-family homes saw underbidding in roughly 92% of neighbourhoods, but condos felt the shift more acutely—likely because investors are stepping back and the most investor-friendly units are lingering on the market.

After 27 years in this business, I know that real estate is about much more than numbers. Still, it helps to have an experienced guide to put these trends in context, especially if you’re thinking about your next move. The landscape is changing, but with the right support and honest advice, you can make the most of it—on your terms.

There’s been a noticeable lift in demand for low-rise new homes across the GTA, thanks in part to the recent HST rebate program. For families hoping to find a place that genuinely feels like home, this is encouraging news—builders have responded quickly, keeping a steady flow of new low-rise options on the market. This balance is helping prevent runaway prices and offering a bit of breathing room for buyers.

While the condo sector hasn’t seen the same benefits due to some tough rules around construction timing, those who qualify for the rebate are seeing real savings, making the dream of homeownership a little more attainable. This is the kind of measure that doesn’t just help buyers—it helps keep our local market healthy and supports jobs in our communities.

After nearly three decades in real estate, I’ve seen how important it is for buyers to have good options and honest guidance, especially in a shifting market. Knowing what matters most to you is the first step to making the right move.

After nearly three decades guiding clients through ups and downs in the real estate world, I know how much a home means to each of you—far beyond just numbers and trends. Right now, Canada’s housing market is showing signs of life: we’ve seen resales pick up, inventories level out, and prices holding steady as more buyers feel ready thanks to improved affordability and stable jobs. Many folks who put their plans on hold seem better prepared now, with savings and job security making a real difference.

Looking ahead, the forecasts for 2026 suggest a slight dip—resales down around 4% (to roughly 453,000) and benchmark prices easing by about 2% (to $794,000). But in 2027, we’re expected to see a gradual return to growth, with resales and prices rising again in every province. The experts are calling it an irregular—not dramatic—recovery, and that feels right from my own experience helping buyers and sellers adjust to changing markets. With borrowing costs sitting near lows and the central bank holding steady, there’s reason for cautious optimism, though factors like trade tensions and energy costs are still in play.

My approach has always been to keep things honest and clear, so if you’re wondering what these shifts might mean for your next move, know that you’re not alone. The market’s changing, but so are the opportunities to find a home that truly fits your life.